MLB Trade Rumors is proud to present our 18th annual Top 50 Free Agents list! These are the top 50 MLB free agents by our estimation of their earning power. To view the full 2023-24 free agent list, . This list is a labor of love that represents more than a month of work by Anthony Franco, Tim Dierkes, Darragh McDonald, and Steve Adams. We live and breathe MLB free agency at this website, and weve spent countle s hours debating these contract projections. While we reached a general consensus on the contracts, points of disagreement certainly remain. Weve each made our own set of team picks as well, but its worth noting the difficulty in getting even one-fifth of those correct. Please note that some clubs are under-represented in our team picks, but there will be notable free agent signings outside of our top 50, and some teams prefer to supplement via trade. Making team picks is part of the fun, which is why we hold a free agent prediction contest every year! This years contest is currently open and closes at 11pm central time on November 13th. ! You can change your picks up until the deadline. Keep in mind that any player who signs prior to the deadline will be excluded from the results. For an in-depth analysis of the upcoming offseason for each of the 30 teams, check out our . Were proud to be an independently-owned baseball website providing high-quality MLB hot stove analysis for the last 18 years. We appreciate that youve chosen us over the alternatives, most of which are ma sive corporations. Please consider supporting us directly with a . Benefits include ad-free browsing, acce s to , acce s to our agency database, exclusive weekly articles from Anthony and Steve, and exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony. Its well worth your while if youre a regular MLBTR reader, and it comes with a 100% money-back guarantee. The 2023-24 MLB free agent market boasts a unique generational two-way star at the top in Shohei Ohtani and several big names within the top ten, but is lacking in position player depth. We vetted these as much as po sible, but with 50 predictions and a volatile free agent and trade marketplace, we know well be off on some. Have your say on all of this in the comment section! Special credit goes to Anthony Franco, who authored the vast majority of the player blurbs to follow. On to our top 50 free agents: 1. . Twelve years, $528MM Tim Dierkes prediction: Dodgers / Anthony Francos prediction: Dodgers / Darragh McDonalds prediction: Dodgers Ohtanis two-way legend stretches back to his days in Japan. Hed hit .286/.358/.501 while pitching to a 2.52 ERA in parts of five seasons at Japans highest level. Ohtani then decided to make the jump to the Majors, knowing that doing so involved sacrificing a substantial sum (likely hundreds of millions of dollars) in short-term earning power. By signing with an MLB club before age 25, he qualified as an international amateur and was subject to a hard-capped signing bonus. He landed with the Angels for just north of $2MM. That locked him into the traditional six-year reserve system (three years of roughly league minimum salaries, followed by three years of arbitration). Ohtani was arguably the most anticipated international signee ever. There was never any question the Angels landed a player whod contribute immense value. Yet some evaluators expre sed skepticism about his viability as a two-way player. He was generally regarded as a potential ace on the mound, but there were questions about how his bat would translate against MLB velocity. He dispelled some concern with a strong rookie showing. Ohtani connected on 22 homers in 114 games to win the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year. Dreams of immediate two-way stardom were put on hold when he suffered a UCL sprain in his throwing elbow after 10 starts. He required Tommy John surgery that October, limiting him strictly to designated hitter the following season. Ohtani had a fine second year as a hitter. His return to the mound in the shortened 2020 campaign was marred by an inability to throw strikes. Heading into 21, there was legitimate debate about whether it was po sible to succeed on both sides of the ball simultaneously. He put that to rest. Ohtani popped 46 home runs while turning in 130 1/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball en route to a unanimous selection as AL MVP. He was arguably better the following year, working to a 2.33 ERA over 28 starts while hitting .273/.356/.519 with 34 homers. Now, Ohtani hits free agency on the heels of his best offensive showing. He led the American League with 44 home runs while hitting .304/.412/.654 acro s 599 plate appearances. The left-handed hitter cut his strikeouts to a career-low 23.9% clip, walked at a ma sive 15.2% rate, and led all qualified batters in slugging percentage. He posted a 3.14 ERA through 132 innings, striking out an excellent 31.5% of opponents. Only a record-setting home run barrage from Aaron Judge last year has kept Ohtani from three consecutive MVP awards. Hes the best player in the world, accomplishing things that leave MLB players and star athletes from other sports in awe. His was shaping up to be a spotle s free agent case. That changed on August 24, when Ohtani left the mound two innings into the first game of a doubleheader with arm fatigue. He underwent imaging that afternoon, which revealed hed again suffered a tear in his UCL. Ohtani played the nightcap as the DH before the Halos announced that his season as a pitcher was finished. A week later, his reps at CAA said hed require a procedure to addre s the i sue. Ohtani hit through the UCL injury for another 10 games. An oblique strain suffered during batting practice in mid-September ended his season. He underwent surgery to repair the UCL on September 19. The specific procedure remains unclear, though its expected to keep him off the mound until 2025. According to his representatives, Ohtani will be able to hit by next Opening Day and could serve as a DH all season. The surgery throws a wrench into his free agent case. Yet even if Ohtani were strictly a designated hitter, hed be the top player in this years cla s. Among qualified hitters over the last three seasons, hes ninth in on-base percentage and trails only Judge in slugging. While Ohtanis 2023 wasnt quite as impre sive as Judges 2022 campaign offensively, hes not that far behind the Yankee slugger as a hitter alone. Ohtani has made clear he intends to pitch again when healthy. Theres risk with any pitcher who has twice undergone major elbow surgery. Perhaps Ohtani will never regain his velocity or will struggle with command. Within the range of outcomes is the chance that he recaptures top-of-the-rotation form, though. Among pitchers with 300+ innings over the last three seasons, Ohtani ranks sixth in ERA (2.84) and fourth in strikeout percentage (31.4%). Hes a po sible Cy Young contender. The market should respond with a record-setting deal. One could argue for Ohtani to seek a short-term pact that shatters the annual salary record in hopes of getting back to free agency after he reestablishes his health as a pitcher in 2025. While thats a potential consideration, he shouldnt have any problem establishing a much higher guarantee record as is. Ohtani turned 29 in July. Judge, whose $360MM pact with the Yankees is the largest contract in MLB history, turned 31 in the first April of his deal. Ohtani offers upside on the mound that Judge didnt provide. Even if the injuries mounted to the point where it werent viable for him to continue pitching, hed likely be an a set in the corner outfield. Ohtani played the outfield in Japan and is an above-average runner. He has been a DH in the majors so as not to overwork him as a pitcher, not because hes a lumbering slugger. The downside of Ohtani not pitching is that he could be an everyday corner outfielder. Between the youth, the unprecedented production and his marketability as an international superstar, Ohtani remains the best free agent in recent memory (potentially ever). Every high-payroll club will have interest. One of the Angels selling points last time around was that they were willing to afford Ohtani wide leeway in setting his usage. Thatll surely be a consideration, as will a franchises competitive outlook. Geography could be a factor. During his last free agent trip, Ohtani reportedly considered the Dodgers, Padres, Rangers, Giants, Mariners and Cubs in addition to the Halos. All but Chicago are Western division teams, though Ohtani hasnt publicly declared a preference for the West Coast. All those clubs will be involved, while traditionally big spenders like the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Astros should be in the fray. Ohtani received and will obviously reject the qualifying offer. Hell cost a signing team a draft choice (and potentially international bonus space). Thats a marginal consideration for a player this good. Theres no precedent in forecasting where teams might draw the line. His camp figures to target $500MM as a round goal. A 12-year pact would run through his age-40 campaign, a mark reached by each of Trea Turner,Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado last offseason. Judge was paid through 39. Teams showed increased willingne s to stretch contract length to diminish the average annual salary for luxury tax purposes. A 12-year deal worth half a billion dollars would involve a $41.667MM AAV that ranks third in MLB history. Getting to $44MM annually would edge past Justin Verlander andMax Scherzer ($43.333MM) for the all-time record. We expect a team to offer the best of worlds the AAV record and a pact running through age-40 which would bring the guarantee to an eye-popping $528MM. Signed with Dodgers for ten years, $700MM. Includes deferred money. 2. . Twelve years, $264MM Tim: Yankees / Anthony: Giants / Darragh: Giants Bellinger hit 39 homers as a 21-year-old en route to the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year. While his production took a dip in year two, he more than returned to form with an MVP showing in 2019. Bellinger hit .305/.406/.629 with 47 longballs, edging out Christian Yelich as the leagues most valuable player. Then came an offensive downturn. Bellinger was fine but unexceptional during the 2020 shortened regular season. While he had a strong postseason to help the Dodgers to a World Series, it wasnt without consequence. While celebrating a home run with teammateEnrique Hernandez in Game 7 of the NL Championship Series, Bellinger dislocated his right shoulder. He played in the Fall Cla sic before undergoing surgery that November. The next two seasons were disastrous. Bellinger hit .165/.240/.302 around three injured list stints (none related to the shoulder) in 2021. He was marginally better the following season, posting a .210/.265/.389 slash through 144 games. He was hurt, plain and simple , agent Scott Boras told in August. He has surgery, and the Dodgers asked him to play with a 35% strength deficiency, and then with COVID, he was deprived of the expert medical treatment. He didnt have the shoulder strength. Boras subsequently walked back the implication the Dodgers had mishandled the situation after L.A. president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told that he ( found) it to be a very convenient narrative. The Dodgers declined to tender Bellinger an arbitration contract last winter. He fielded reported interest from the Rockies, Giants, Yankees and Blue Jays before signing a $17.5MM deal with the Cubs. It was a cla sic pillow contract. Rarely do one of those deals work out quite this well. Bellinger had a resurgent season, hitting .307/.356/.525 over 556 plate appearances. He connected on 26 homers, stole 20 bases and slashed his strikeout rate to a career-low 15.6%. Bellinger mi sed a few weeks with a left knee contusion but was otherwise healthy. He logged 686 innings in center field and rated as a plus defender in 421 2/3 frames at first base. Itd be simplistic to say Bellinger is back to his MVP form. He homered in 4.7% of his plate appearances this year after connecting on a big fly 6% of the time during his first three seasons. Bellingers batted ball metrics are uninspiring. His 31.4% hard contact rate (defined as an exit velocity of 95 MPH or higher) is almost nine percentage points below league average; its well down from the 45% range at which he has squaring balls up during his MVP season. At the same time, there are a lot of positives on the rsum. The shoulder certainly appears healthier now than it has in the past two years. Hes putting more balls in play, which reduces the pre sure to hit for power. Bellinger remains a quality defender in either center field or at first base. Hes an above-average baserunner. He wont turn 29 until July, meaning next season is technically his age-28 campaign. The free agent cla s for hitters drops off precipitously behind him, particularly in center field. The shoulder offers a partial if incomplete explanation for his 2021-22 struggles. Another former MVP,Kris Bryant, landed a $182MM deal with the Rockies two winters back on the heels of a le ser platform year. Bryant was two years older than Bellinger is now. Brandon Nimmo reset the center field market with a $20.25MM annual value over eight seasons from the Mets at age 30. Hed never reached Bellingers MVP heights, although hed also never experienced anything like his downturn. Nimmos deal ran through age 37. Bogaerts was paid through 40 off a very similar platform showing to Bellingers 2023, albeit with more career consistency. Were betting on Bellingers youth winning out. Bogaerts, Machado, Turner and Rafael Devers all signed decade-long deals last winter as teams sought to diminish the AAV. An 11-year or 12-year pact could be on the table. A $22MM AAV over 12 years would narrowly beat Nimmos annual salaries while pushing past $250MM total. The Cubs made Bellinger a qualifying offer, so hell cost a signing team a draft choice. Each of San Francisco, the Yankees, and Toronto could check back in. Other clubs may not need center field help but could move younger outfielders around. The Cubs could try to retain him even with top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong having reached the majors. Signed with Cubs for three years, $80MM. 3. . Nine years, $225MM Tim: Giants / Anthony: Yankees / Darragh: Yankees Yamamoto is the top Japanese pitcher (aside from Ohtani) to make the jump to the Majors in years. The right-hander reached Japans highest level as an 18-year-old back in 2017. He found succe s by his second season and established himself in the Orix Buffaloes rotation by 2019, his age-20 season. That year, Yamamoto worked to a 1.95 ERA through 143 innings. It kicked off a five-year stretch of laughable run prevention. He didnt allow more than 2.20 earned runs per nine in any of his final five seasons in NPB. He hits the market on the heels of three consecutive sub-2.00 showings. Since the start of 2021, he carries a 1.44 ERA at the second-highest level of profe sional baseball. Yamamoto won consecutive Sawamura awards as NPBs best pitcher in 2021 and 22. He arguably improved on that performance, posting a 1.21 ERA through 164 innings this year. Thats a half-run lower than the leagues second-place finisher. Yamamoto punched out 26.6% of opposing hitters, while his 169 total strikeouts ranked second in the league. He paired that with a minuscule 4.4% walk rate that is almost half the MLB average. He allowed just two home runs. Yamamoto capped his NPB pitching career with an , striking out a record 14 while throwing 138 pitches. Kodai Senga posted a 1.94 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate during his final season in NPB. Some scouts suggested Sengas repertoire and/or fringy command projected him to a bullpen future at the MLB level. His first MLB season was excellent, as he pitched to a 2.98 ERA in 29 starts for the Mets after signing a $75MM deal. Yamamoto is unanimously viewed as a better pitcher. He has a longer track record of statistical dominance and stronger reviews from scouts. Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke project Yamamoto as a high-end big league starter, likely as a #2 arm in a strong rotation. Hes on the smaller side for a starting pitcher, listed at 510 and 176 pounds. Yet there arent many reservations about him holding up physically and theres no question hell do very well financially. On top of the statistical dominance and strong scouting reports, Yamamoto hits the market at an age almost never seen for a starter. He was born in August 1998, meaning hell be entering his age-25 season. Its e sentially impo sible for a pitcher coming through the six-year MLB reserve system to get to free agency that young. The most recent comparison was Masahiro Tanaka, who joined the Yankees on a seven-year, $155MM pact in advance of his age-25 season in 2014. With nearly a decade since the Tanaka deal, Yamamoto should handily surpa s that number based on inflation alone. Gerrit Cole is the only pitcher to sign a nine-year guarantee. Aside from Cole, commitments to top starters tend to stop at seven years. Those typically begin in the pitchers age-29 or older season, however. Its not uncommon to see pitchers paid through 36 or 37. That probably be wont the case for Yamamoto. A commitment of 11 or 12 years would entail injury risk, while theres still some amount of uncertainty until he matches up with major league hitters. Eight years feels like the floor, with a decent chance he matches Coles nine-year term. Its po sible his camp negotiates an opt-out clause midway through the deal, as hes certainly young enough to have another bite at the apple a few years from now. In addition to the sum guaranteed to the player, a signing team will have to send money to the Buffaloes. Yamamoto will be made available via the posting system, since he didnt reach the requisite nine years of NPB service time to qualify for full international free agency. The MLB team will pay a fee to the Buffaloes in proportion to the size of Yamamotos contract. Theyll owe the NPB club 20% of the contracts first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Unlike many of the other top free agents, he wouldnt cost a signing team a draft choice because the qualifying offer is not in play. Yamamoto has 45 days from his official posting date to sign; hed otherwise remain in NPB. He will find a deal within the posting window. Hes young enough to appeal to teams at various stages of their competitive timelines. Any team that runs the kind of payroll to accommodate a $200MM+ free agent contract could be involved. The Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Giants, Tigers, Cubs and Rangers all figure to check in, although upwards of half the league could realistically be in play. Signed with Dodgers for 12 years, $325MM. Additional $50.625MM posting fee paid to Orix Buffaloes. 4. . Seven years, $200MM Tim: Phillies / Anthony: Red Sox / Darragh: Dodgers Snell can reach heights matched by few pitchers. The left-hander is coming off his second Cy Young-caliber showing and ERA title alike. That hes never received a single Cy Young vote outside the seasons in which he has won the award hints at the volatility in his profile, but there might not be any starting pitchers more capable of blowing away an opposing lineup when hes on. The run Snell put together from June onward was remarkable. After a pedestrian first couple months, the 64 hurler turned in a 1.23 ERA while fanning 35% of batters faced through his final 23 starts. His typically scattershot command was still present, as he walked 13.2% of opponents. It didnt matter because hitters were incapable of touching him whenever he was around the strike zone. It was a perfect time for the best stretch of Snells career, yet hed proven himself as a top-of-the-rotation arm even before that run of utter dominance. Snell rode a 1.89 ERA to the 2018 American League Cy Young while pitching for the Rays. He has allowed fewer than 3.55 earned runs per nine in five of his eight MLB campaigns. In the three years since being dealt from Tampa Bay to the Padres, he put together a 3.15 ERA with a 31.5% strikeout rate in 83 starts. Snell is widely expected to land the 2023 NL Cy Young award on November 15th. Its an unconventional profile for an ace. Snell i sued an MLB-leading 99 walks this past season. Of the 95 starting pitchers with 300+ innings over the last three years, none has handed out free pa ses at a higher rate than his 12% clip. Snell isnt as efficient as most elite starters. He has averaged 5.19 innings per start for his career, and while thats partially a reflection of the Rays aggre sive bullpen management, he was working around 5 2/3 frames per appearance with the Padres this year. Snell reached the 180-inning threshold in his two (likely) Cy Young campaigns; he has otherwise never thrown even 130 innings in a season. While the lack of volume is somewhat concerning, the league is increasingly skewing toward rate performance over bulk innings. Carlos Rodon landed a $162MM pact last winter without having a single 180-inning season to his name. Snell doesnt have the same level of injury concern as Rodon, who has previously undergone Tommy John surgery and an arthroscopic shoulder procedure. Snell underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove loose bodies in 2019; hes battled fairly minor adductor (groin) i sues in 2021-22 and hasnt been on the injured list since May 2022. Snell also simply has hit levels of dominance than Rodon didnt reach. Hes coming off a better platform season, especially in the second half. Rodon has never finished higher than fifth in Cy Young balloting. Snell is a year older than Rodon was, turning 31 in December, but he has the superior rsum and should land the loftier deal. His camp figures to take aim at $200MM and could look to beat the $217MM which David Price received from the Red Sox. Snell received and will reject a qualifying offer from San Diego. Any traditional big spender might be involved in the market. The Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Yankees, Cardinals, Red Sox, Rangers, Giants, Tigers, Cubs and Orioles all have payroll room and could theoretically pursue a top-of-the-rotation starter. Signed with Giants for two years, $62MM. 5. . Six years, $150MM Tim: Cardinals/ Anthony: Cardinals / Darragh: Cardinals A career-long Phillie, Nola hits the open market for the first time. Philadelphia selected the LSU product with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft. Within a year, hed reached the big leagues, working to a 3.59 ERA over his first 13 starts. An elbow strain limited him to 20 appearances during his sophomore campaign. Since then, the right-hander has been the picture of durability. Nolas only injured list stints over the past seven seasons have been for a lower back strain in 2017 and a stint on the virus list in 2021. He has surpa sed 160 innings in each of the last six full schedules and took a full slate of 12 turns in 2020. Only Gerrit Cole has thrown more innings over that span. In recognition of that durability, Philadelphia signed Nola to a $45MM extension in 2019. The contract bought out two free agent seasons. While Nola doesnt have Coles level of dominance, he is far more than an innings eater. The right-hander has turned in a sub-4.00 ERA in five of the last seven seasons despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home ballpark and typically operating in front of lackluster defenses. His run prevention has been spotty of late. Nola sandwiched a 3.25 showing in 2022 with middling ERA figures (4.63 and 4.46, respectively) in 2021 and 2023. A slightly elevated home run rate was the main culprit for Nolas middling ERA this year. He surrendered 1.49 homers per nine innings, above the 1.32 HR/9 league average for starters. While its the first time the longball has given Nola much trouble, his ground-ball percentage has dropped from the 50% range to just above 40% in each of the last three years. Nola has pristine command, walking fewer than 6% of opposing hitters three years running. He paired that with a strikeout rate just below 30% from 2021-22. That dropped to 25.5% this year, although thats largely a reflection of a slow start. From June onward, Nola punched out 27.9% of opponents against a 5.5% walk rate. Its not a traditional power profile. Nola averaged 92.7 MPH on his fastball and 79.4 MPH on the curveball that is his best offering. Despite the pedestrian velocity, hes shown the ability to post borderline ace-caliber results while shouldering as heavy a workload as any major league pitcher. Nola has three top-10 Cy Young finishes on his rsum, including a fourth-place nod in 2022. He concluded this year on a strong note. Nola to sed 23 innings over four playoff starts, working to a 2.35 ERA. He struck out 23 while walking four to help the Phils within one game of a second straight pennant. Since he reached the majors just after his 22nd birthday, Nola is reasonably young despite the early-career extension. He turns 31 in June. USA Todays Bob Nightengale that his camp had sought an eight-year pact that topped $200MM during extension talks with the Phils this spring. The team preferred a four- or five-year term. Nola received and will decline a qualifying offer. Hes entering his age-31 season, an age at which Jon Lester (six years, $155MM),Kevin Gausman (five years, $110MM) andYu Darvish (six years, $126MM) all landed nine-figure guarantees. Nola is a year older than Carlos Rodon (six years, $162MM) was last offseason and didnt quite show the same upside, although he has far better durability and a more consistent track record. The Cardinals have already been linked to Nola, while Philadelphia president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has called it a to bring him back. More than a third of the league could be involved in his market. Signed with Phillies for seven years, $172MM. 6. . Six years, $150MM Tim: Rangers / Anthony: Mets / Darragh: Giants Montgomery began his career as a fourth-round draftee of the Yankees. The left-hander reached the majors in 2017, debuting with 29 starts of 3.88 ERA ball. The promising debut was interrupted by a Tommy John surgery midway through his second year. He barely pitched between 2018-19 and struggled to a 5.11 ERA over 10 starts during the shortened 2020 campaign. The South Carolina product returned to form in 2021. He worked to a 3.83 ERA over 30 starts. He owned a 3.69 mark acro s 21 outings the next season before surprisingly finding himself in a deadline trade. After deciding Montgomery wasnt likely to factor in their playoff rotation, the Yankees traded him to the Cardinals for Harrison Bader. The left-hander continued plugging along, posting a 3.11 ERA in 11 starts for St. Louis down the stretch. Montgomery was featured in another deadline deal this past summer. This one was far more predictable. St. Louis dropped out of contention almost immediately and became an obvious seller. After working to a 3.42 ERA over 21 starts, Montgomery positioned himself as arguably the top rental starter available. St. Louis sent him to the Rangers a couple days before the deadline. He continued pitching well in Arlington, working to a 2.79 ERA in 11 appearances. Montgomery further burnished his rsum with 31 innings of 2.90 ball for the World Champion Rangers. A scorele s seven-inning outing over the Rays was a huge factor in the Rangers winning the Wild Card series. The lefty pitched well in a pair of ALCS starts against the Astros and added a clutch Game 7 relief outing. Montgomerys lone World Series start, in which he allowed four runs in six frames, didnt advance the Rangers cause but probably didnt diminish his postseason succe s overall. Over the past three seasons, Montgomery owns a 3.48 ERA acro s 94 starts. His 22.5% strikeout rate is around average, while he has kept the walks to a tidy 6.2% clip. Its not an overpowering profile, but Montgomery does everything well. Hes a consistent strike-thrower who mi ses enough bats and handles hitters of either handedne s. Both his sinker and four-seam average a bit north of 93 MPH, while his changeup and curveball are quality secondary offerings. Since the Tommy John procedure, he has been durable. Montgomery looks like a safe bet for upper mid-rotation production. He fits as a #2 or high-end #3 starter on a contender. The midseason trade adds to the appeal. Not only did he demonstrate he can pitch in the postseason, but changing teams rendered him ineligible for the qualifying offer. Aside from Yamamoto, hes the clear best pitcher available who wouldnt cost a signing team a draft pick. Though theyre older comps, the six-year contracts received by fellow southpaws Jon Lester and Patrick Corbin may be Montgomerys range. Some suitors may stop at five years, as happened with Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman, but a club may be able to differentiate its offer by adding a sixth year. Despite trading Montgomery, the Cardinals or Yankees could look to re-engage given their clear rotation needs. Montgomery certainly left a positive impre sion on the Rangers. The Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Mets, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Red Sox, and Tigers also make some measure of sense. Signed with Diamondbacks for one year, $25MM. 7. . Six years, $150MM Tim: Giants / Anthony: Phillies / Darragh: Cubs Chapman was a down-ballot MVP candidate during his first few seasons in Oakland. He paired elite defensive grades at third base with a slugging percentage north of .500 in three straight years, headlined by a 36-homer campaign in 2019. His 2020 season was cut short by a torn labrum in his right hip that required surgery. Since that procedure, Chapman hasnt been the same caliber of hitter. He hit .210/.314/.403 with a 32.5% strikeout rate in 2021. The As dealt him to the Blue Jays the following offseason. Over two seasons in Toronto, the right-handed hitter put up a .234/.327/.429 slash. He draws plenty of walks and has cut his strikeouts a bit from their 2020-21 peak, yet hes still punching out at an elevated 27.8% clip over the last two years. Chapman was on a torrid stretch to start this season, running a .384/.465/.687 mark with a dramatically improved 22.8% strikeout rate through the first month. From May onwards, he limped to a .205/.298/.361 slash while striking out 30% of the time. The Jays were hitting him in the bottom third of the order down the stretch. Volatility aside, the end line was a typical Chapman season. He hit .240/.330/.424 with 17 homers through 581 plate appearances. He lost a couple weeks towards the tail end with a sprained right middle finger. It wasnt a bad season overall considering hes still one of the sports best infielders. A four-time Gold Glove winner (including this year), he ranks fifth among third basemen with 14 Defensive Runs Saved over the last two seasons. The total package makes Chapman an above-average regular. As he gets further away from his peak days in Oakland, its harder for teams to sell themselves on him hitting at a middle-of-the-order level, although his batted-ball metrics remain tantalizing. Chapman sits in the 98th percentile of MLB hitters in average exit velocity and barrel rate, per Statcast, and no qualified batter topped his 56.4% hard-hit rate. That profile could lead some teams to dream on a return to form. Even if that doesnt come to pa s, that shouldnt rule out a weighty long-term deal. After all, none of Dansby Swanson,Trevor Story orJavier Baez were elite hitters going into free agency, yet they each landed guarantees between $140MM and $177MM. While theyre all shortstops, Chapman fits a broadly similar profile: a plus defensive infielder with power but enough swing-and-mi s to put a cap on the offensive ceiling. In a market light on position players, Chapmans glove gives him one of the more stable floors. Hell be 31 in April and should look for five- or six-year deals after rejecting a qualifying offer from Toronto. The Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Tigers, Phillies, and incumbent Jays could all show interest. Signed with Giants for three years, $54MM. 8. . Six years, $110MM Tim: Rangers / Anthony: Rangers / Darragh: Rangers Hader reestablished himself as one of the sports best relievers with a dazzling platform year. He worked to a 1.28 ERA acro s 56 1/3 innings. Hader struck out 36.8% of opposing hitters, picked up swinging strikes on almost 16% of his offerings, and dominated opponents of either handedne s. A multi-inning weapon early in his career, the southpaw is now a prototypical closer. He hasnt worked more than one inning in a regular season appearance since 2019. Hader is an excellent ninth inning arm, succe sfully finishing 103 of 113 opportunities (a 91.2% succe s rate) over the last three years. This was Haders fifth season with a sub-3.00 ERA and the second time he allowed fewer than two earned runs per nine. His strikeout rate has dipped from its 47.8% peak but remains one of the games best. Haders 5.22 ERA from 2022 looks like a blip, the kind of anomalous season that sometimes affects even elite relievers. So long as that spike doesnt come in the pitchers platform season, teams can look past it.Edwin Diaz turned in a 5.59 ERA in 2019 amidst a five-year run in which he posted three sub-2.00 showings. That didnt impact Diazs market value. The Mets righty became the first reliever to land nine figures, securing a five-year, $102MM pact last winter. Thats the obvious benchmark for Haders camp. His career 2.50 ERA is nearly half a run lower than Diazs 2. Anthony Rizzo Jersey 93 figure. Diaz throws harder and was a year younger than Hader is now, but the latter could get a slight edge as a left-hander. Hader will have the benefit of open-market bidding, while Diaz was negotiating exclusively with the Mets when he signed his deal just before free agency. It seems likely Hader will set a new record for a reliever contract, even if itd take a sixth year to do so. Higher-payroll clubs will have more leeway to accommodate a nine-figure investment, although every team would improve by adding Hader to the bullpen. The Padres made him a qualifying offer, which hell reject. Signed with Astros for five years, $95MM. 9. . Four years, $90MM Tim: Braves / Anthony: Dodgers / Darragh: Tigers Gray, who turns 34 tomorrow, is likely to earn AL Cy Young votes after placing second in the American League with a 2.79 ERA. The Twins 11-year veteran righty is one of the more desirable starting pitchers on the market this winter, despite his age and the burden of the qualifying offer. The As drafted Gray 18th overall back in 2011 out of Vanderbilt. Prior to the 2012 season, Gray reached #65 on Baseball Americas prospect rankings, projecting as a potential #2 starter despite standing at 510. He dropped off the list after struggling in his first full pro season but had immediate MLB succe s upon reaching Oakland in the summer of 2013. The high point of Grays excellent run with the As was his 2015 season, in which he earned his first All-Star nod and finished third in the AL Cy Young voting. He stumbled to a 5.69 ERA in 22 starts the following year, a season in which he hit the IL for a strained right trapezius and a subsequent forearm strain. Gray started the 2017 season on the IL with a lat strain, but returned to form enough to . He pitched well for the remainder of that season, punctuated by a strong start in Game 4 of the ALCS. Gray struggled for the Yankees in 2018, losing his rotation spot by August. After some from Yankees GM Brian Cashman, Gray was shipped to the Reds in January 2019 as part of a three-team trade. The pitcher agreed to a three-year extension with a fourth-year club option as part of the deal. Gray rebounded in his first year in Cincinnati, earning another All-Star selection while finishing seventh in the Cy Young voting. After that season, Gray underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow. Gray worked around minor injuries to post decent results for the rest of his Reds career before being dealt to the Twins as part of the post-lockout frenzy. Despite IL stints that year for hamstring and pectoral strains, Gray pitched to a 3.08 ERA in 24 starts. The Twins picked up his club option for 2023. They were rewarded with a healthy and effective All-Star season: a 2.79 ERA, 24.3 K%, 7.3 BB%, and 47.3% groundball rate in 184 innings. Gray was also effective in a Wild Card series start, though he struggled in his ALDS outing. This is Grays first foray into free agency, and hell turn down a qualifying offer from the Twins. Hes had a very succe sful career to date. In fact, for players 510 or shorter, Gray leads all pitchers in bWAR in the Wild Card era (1995 to present). Hes still tinkering at this stage in his career, reducing his fastball and curveball usage while increasing sliders, cutters, and change-ups. Starting pitchers entering their age 34 or older season almost never exceed three years in free agency, with the exception of Jacob deGrom getting five. We still think Gray is likely to surpa s Chris Ba sitts three-year, $63MM deal by securing a fourth year. As a pitcher whose age likely caps his contract at four years, Gray will be a top target for teams uninterested in ponying up for Montgomery, Nola, Snell, or Yamamoto. The Twins may look to retain Gray, but otherwise the Angels, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Marlins, Mets, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, Tigers, and White Sox could be suitors. Signed with Cardinals for three years, $75MM. 10. . Five years, $85MM Tim: Cubs / Anthony: Cubs / Darragh: Angels Imanaga is the second-best pitcher in this years cla s of NPB starters. A 510 left-hander, he reached Japans top level as a 22-year-old in 2016. Imanaga has pitched parts of eight seasons for the Yokohama BayStars, working to a 3.18 ERA in just over 1000 innings. He has posted consecutive sub-3.00 showings over the last two years, following up a 2.26 ERA in 2022 with a 2.80 mark acro s 148 innings this past season. World Baseball Cla sic fans may be familiar with Imanaga, who started Japans WBC final win over the United States. He pitched two innings, allowing one run on a Trea Turner homer with a pair of strikeouts. His 174 strikeouts narrowly topped Yamamotos 169 for the NPB lead. Imanaga punched out an excellent 29.2% of batters faced against a 4% walk rate. While the strikeout and walk profile was slightly superior to Yamamotos, he was a lot more susceptible to home runs. Imanaga was tagged for 17 longballs, more than Yamamoto has surrendered over the past three seasons combined. MLBTRs contacts have described Imanaga as a #3/4 starter in the majors. His fastball typically operates in the low-90s but he was working in the 94-96 MPH range in shorter stints during the WBC. Sources to whom MLBTR spoke indicated that Imanaga isnt as highly regarded a pitcher as Mets righty Kodai Senga, who inked a five-year, $75MM contract last offseason. However, that guarantee for Senga now looks like a bargain, given his excellent debut campaign in Queens. As such, we feel that even with a perhaps le ser profile, Imanaga could secure a larger guarantee. Imanaga underwent season-ending shoulder surgery back in 2020. He has returned from that procedure to log around 150 innings in each of the past three years. He turned 30 in September and could find a four or five-year deal. As with Yamamoto, Imanaga is available via the posting system as opposed to unrestricted free agency. Hell have 45 days to sign from the official posting date and the MLB team will owe the BayStars a release fee. Signed with Cubs for four years, $53MM. 11. . Four years, $82MM Tim: Red Sox / Anthony: Reds / Darragh: White Sox Rodriguez, 31 in April, signed a five-year, $77MM deal with the Tigers in November of 2021. That contract included an opt-out after 2023, which Rodriguez chose in lieu of the remaining three years and $49MM. Rodriguez began his MLB career with the Red Sox in 2015, after the Orioles dealt him for Andrew Miller. He peaked with Boston in 2019, finishing sixth in the AL Cy Young voting after making 34 starts with a 3.81 ERA. After getting COVID-19 in 2020, Rodriguez developed myocarditis. The heart condition caused him to mi s that season, but he returned with a solid 2021 campaign. Bolstered by strong peripheral stats, E-Rod landed the big contract with Detroit despite a 4.74 ERA and a qualifying offer. Its been an unconventional couple of years in Detroit for Rodriguez. He started his Tigers career in 2022 with high hopes and the Opening Day nod but landed on the IL in late May with a left ribcage strain. While on a rehab a signment, Rodriguez was transferred to the restricted list due to a marital i sue. In a situation former Tigers GM Al Avila as unusual, the two parties did not have contact for roughly a month. The full explanation for Rodriguezs time on the restricted list is not publicly known, but will surely be communicated to suitors. When Rodriguez eventually returned, the layoff had surpa sed three months. He posted a career-worst 18.4 K% in his 91 innings in 2022. Rodriguez again snagged the Opening Day nod in 2023, for a Tigers club with a new GM and lowered expectations. He started the season by ripping off 11 starts with a 2.13 ERA, 25.5 K%, and 6.1 BB%. At that point, Rodriguez went on the IL with a ruptured A4 pulley in his left index finger. He returned on the shorter side of a projected six-to-eight week recovery period. That gave Rodriguez four starts to re-establish his health before the trade deadline. With the Tigers going nowhere this year and Rodriguez a threat to opt out after the season, it made sense for Detroit to find a trade for the lefty despite his ten-team no-trade clause. The Tigers agreed to a deal with one of the teams on Rodriguezs list, the Dodgers, and the player exercised his right to veto the trade. In talking to reporters about the decision, Rodriguez cited my future and my family. He the decision was nothing against the Dodgers or the West Coast or whatever, and it was reported that he wanted to stay closer to family that liked Detroit and was otherwise based in Miami. , Rodriguezs agent Gene Mato proposed an additional year at $20MM on Rodriguezs contract if hed accepted the trade to the Dodgers and declined to opt out after the season. That suggests that being paid $69MM over the four-year span of 2024-27 would have been enough for Rodriguez and his family to get past their geographic preferences. It appears that a lack of time to negotiate a new contract killed the Dodgers trade more so than any aversion to the West Coast on the part of Rodriguez. Despite his injury this year, Rodriguez tallied a healthy 152 innings for the Tigers with a career-best 3.30 ERA. His strikeout rate and Statcast numbers are le s impre sive than his previous walk year, and of course hes now two years older. He is at least free of the qualifying offer burden. Vetoing a trade, Rodriguezs contractual right, shouldnt nece sarily come with a stigma. But there could be some teams, particularly on the West Coast, that may be le s inclined to pursue Rodriguez after he chose not to jump into a pennant race for three months. Teams will also consider Rodriguezs time on the restricted list in 22. Even so, sometimes just two serious suitors can drive up a players price. The mid-tier starting pitcher market moved in Rodriguezs favor since his last free agent experience. Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker set a new standard in the four-year, $68-72MM range, and it could be argued that Rodriguezs abilities surpa s that pair. Were predicting a four-year contract, but a five-year deal could be on the table here, with a market comparable to that of Gray. Signed with Diamondbacks for four years, $80MM. 12. . Four years, $80MM Tim: Angels / Anthony: Angels / Darragh: White Sox Hernandez entered the season as one of the likelier nine-figure hitters in a weak offensive cla s. Between 2020-22, the right-handed hitter raked at a .283/.333/.519 clip in over 1300 plate appearances for the Blue Jays. Toronto dealt him to the Mariners for relieverErik Swanson and a pitching prospect before his final season of arbitration. His potential lone season in Seattle was below those standards. Hernandez hit .258/.305/.435 with 26 homers through 678 trips to the plate. His 31.1% strikeout rate was his highest since 2019, while he walked at a career-low 5.6% clip. Hernandez has always made his living more from power than a great plate approach. This years .258 average and .305 on-base percentage were neverthele s his worst since 2019. Hernandez seemed to turn a corner after a slow start. He had an excellent June and was one of the games top hitters in August. That sandwiched a dreadful July, though, and he limped to a .227/.287/.336 line in the seasons final month. Optimistic teams could point to Hernandezs home/road splits. He hit just .217/.263/.380 at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park; his .295/.344/.486 slash away from Seattle was more characteristic. Perhaps it was simply an ill-timed platform year. In a market where there arent many alternatives, Hernandez is still one of the top options for teams seeking a middle-of-the-order bat. He typically grades as a below-average defender in the corner outfield despite above-average sprint speed and arm strength. DRS and Statcast both felt he was roughly average in right field this past season. Kyle Schwarber andMarcell Ozuna landed four-year deals worth $79MM and $64MM, respectively. Nick Castellanos secured $100MM over five seasons. Hernandez has a little more defensive value than that group and is typically a comparable or better hitter. His platform year was below theirs, though hes also facing le s competition. Surprisingly, the Mariners neglected to make a qualifying offer to Hernandez, who will now hit the market free of that burden. The White Sox, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, Marlins, Dodgers, Rockies and his old team in Toronto could all have interest. Signed with Dodgers for one year, $23.5MM. 13. . Four years, $70MM Tim: Cubs / Anthony: Royals / Darragh: Blue Jays Candelario settled for a $5MM contract a year ago after being non-tendered by the Tigers. Hes in line for a much more lucrative payday after a strong bounceback campaign. The switch-hitting infielder put together a .258/.342/.481 line in 99 games for the Nationals. Washington flipped him to the Cubs for a pair of prospects at the deadline. His .234/.318/.445 showing for Chicago was a little below his early-season level. The overall season line still stands at an impre sive .251/.336/.471. Candelario hit 22 homers and 39 doubles, three off his league-leading 42 doubles from two seasons prior. He draws a decent number of walks, strikes out at a roughly league average clip, and has solid power. Candelario hits at a slightly above-average level from both sides of the plate and owns a .254/.328/.437 slash over the last four seasons. Thedown 2022 that led Detroit to cut him loose like the outlier amidst otherwise solid production. Candelario can play either corner infield spot. Hes a roughly league average defender at third base and should be able to stick there for a few years. Hes entering his age-30 season and wont cost a signing team a draft choice thanks to the midseason trade. He could land four years in a similar salary range as Mike Moustakas andChris Taylor. The Cubs could try to keep him around, while other potential suitors include the D-Backs, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays and Giants. Signed with Reds for three years, $45MM. 14. Four years, $54MM Tim: Royals / Anthony: Yankees / Darragh: Mariners Gurriel played parts of six seasons at Cubas highest level before leaving the country alongside older brother Yuli Gurriel in February 2016. Nine months later, the younger Gurriel brother signed a seven-year, $22MM pact with the Blue Jays. The deal allowed him to become a free agent at contracts end even if he didnt reach the traditional six years of MLB service. Thats what happened, as Gurriel spent his first season and a half in the Toronto farm system. He debuted in 2018 and showed a decent amount of offensive promise. The Jays initially experimented with him as a middle infielder. By 2020, hed been kicked to left field permanently. Gurriel is a good enough hitter to meet the higher offensive expectations a sociated with left field. He has had an above-average wRC+ in every season of his MLB career. Hes an aggre sive hitter who wont draw many walks, but Gurriel hits for solid batting averages and has topped 20 home runs on three occasions. He was well on that pace during the abbreviated 2020 schedule as well. The Jays included Gurriel alongsideGabriel Moreno to acquireDaulton Varsho last winter. While Moreno was the headliner, Gurriel had a typically solid season. He connected on a career-best 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 batting line. It was a volatile year he was otherworldly in May, terrible in June and July, then very good down the stretch but the aggregate production was solid. He also received a career-best +14 grade from Defensive Runs Saved over 778 innings. Statcast was le s bullish, rating him as one run above average. Gurriel popped three home runs in his 70 postseason plate appearances this year, including a shot in Game 4 of the World Series. Per the terms of his original contract, hes ineligible for a qualifying offer. Gurriel turned 30 in October. He has one of the better offensive track records among a weak free agent cla s. A three- or even four-year deal could be on the table. His camp could take aim at the four-year, $53MM contract secured by Avisail Garcia two offseasons ago. The Braves, Royals, Angels, Dodgers, and Mets could be potential matches. Signed with Diamondbacks for three years, $42MM. Includes opt-out after second year. 15. . Five years, $50MM Tim: Padres / Anthony: Padres / Darragh: Blue Jays Lee is a left-handed hitting outfielder from South Korea who turned 25 in August. He has played parts of seven seasons in the Korea Baseball Organization, generally starring for the Nexen/Kiwoom Heroes. Lee has hit above .300 with an on-base percentage near or better than .400 every season. He didnt hit for much power early on but slugged north of .500 each season from 2020-22. His best year was 2022, when he hit .349/.421/.575 with 23 home runs. He took more than twice as many walks as strikeouts acro s 627 plate appearances. Lee drove in 113 and was named the KBOs most valuable player. After the season, the Heroes announced theyd make him available to major league teams during the 2023-24 offseason through the posting system. Unfortunately for Lee, his platform season was his worst in a few years. He hit .318/.406/.455 with just six homers in his first 86 games. He injured his left ankle in late July, nece sitating season-ending surgery. The Heroes announced at the time that his rehab proce s would take roughly three months ( ). Theres nothing to suggest he wont be ready for Spring Training. Whether teams project Lee as a regular remains to be seen. One evaluator told MLBTR that Lee is unlikely to stick as a center fielder, which would put more pre sure on his bat. Lee has strong pure contact skills, but theres some concern he wont hit for the kind of power nece sary to play every day in the corner outfield. Of course, some clubs expre sed similar worries aboutMasataka Yoshida when he was coming over from NPB a season ago. (Somewhat notably, both Yoshida and Lee are represented by the Boras Corporation.) The Red Sox had enough faith in the hit tool to guarantee him $90MM over five years, hinting at the variability in teams projections on some players making the jump from another profe sional league. Contracts for such players can be notoriously difficult to project. As is the case with Yamamoto and Imanaga, a major league team would owe a posting fee to the Asian club. The calculation is the same as it is for the NPB players: 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Lees potential suitors may depend on teams perception of his ability to play center field regularly in the Majors. Signed six-year, $113MM with Giants. Includes opt-out after fourth year. Giants also pay $18.825MM posting fee to Kiwoom Heroes. 16. . Three years, $45MM Tim: Blue Jays / Anthony: Astros / Darragh: Mets Soler, 32 in February, opted out of a $13MM salary for 2024. Hed signed a three-year, $36MM deal with the Marlins in March of 2022. Soler defected from Cuba back in 2011, inking a $30MM deal with the Cubs. He was traded to the Royals for Wade Davis shortly after the Cubs 2016 championship. In 2019, Soler shook off a lengthy injury history on his way to a franchise-record 48 home runs with a 136 wRC+ for Kansas City. However, Soler fell all the way to an 86 wRC+ for the Royals over his next 536 plate appearances, leading them to trade him to the Braves at the 2021 deadline. He raked for the Braves and continued that succe s in the Fall Cla sic, winning World Series MVP. That strong finish, combined with consistently strong Statcast metrics, led the Marlins to reward Soler with the aforementioned three-year deal. The up-and-down nature of Solers career continued, as he posted a 95 wRC+ with the Marlins in 2022 while mi sing time due to bilateral pelvis inflammation and lower-back spasms. Given the chance to forgo the remaining two years and $24MM on his deal, Soler chose to stay with Miami for 2023. This year, Soler returned to form with 36 home runs and a 126 wRC+ in 580 plate appearances. He was able to avoid the IL until a September stint for an oblique strain. Never known for his defensive prowe s, Soler was limited to 241 2/3 innings in the outfield this year. That marked his continued transition into a designated hitter, a role in which he logged 102 games. Among free agents, only Shohei Ohtani hit more home runs than Solers 36 this year. His 126 wRC+ ranks behind only Ohtani and Cody Bellinger among qualified free agents. remains covered in red (a good thing). Four-year deals have been hard to come by for designated hitters of Solers age, though Nelson Cruz and Victor Martinez were older than Soler upon landing theirs after the 2014 season. Given his inconsistency and injury history, Soler seems more likely to land somewhere shy of Jose Abreus three-year, $58.5MM deal from last winter. Signed with Giants for three years, $42MM. 17. . Two years, $44MM Tim: Mets / Anthony: Orioles / Darragh: Mets Giolito is one of the biggest wild cards in this winters cla s. A former first-round pick and arguably the games top pitching prospect, he headlined the 2016 Adam Eaton trade between the Nationals and White Sox. He spent most of 2017 in the minors and was bombed in his first extended MLB action the following year. Everything clicked in 2019. Giolito posted his first of three consecutive sub-4.00 ERA showings while cementing himself as a very durable starter. He appeared on Cy Young ballots in three straight seasons while posting a cumulative 3.47 ERA with a 30.7% strikeout rate in 427 2/3 innings. While he looked like a strong #2 starter heading into 2022, Giolitos past two seasons have been underwhelming. He has allowed almost five earned runs per nine innings pitched in both years. A fastball that averaged 94 MPH a few seasons ago is down slightly to the 92-93 MPH range. The whiffs have taken a corresponding step back; his 25.7% strikeout rate and 12.2% swinging-strike percentage remain better than average but are down from peak levels. Giolitos biggest i sue has been the home run ball. He surrendered an AL-worst 41 longballs over 184 1/3 innings this past season, which he split between three teams. Traded from the White Sox to the Angels at the deadline, he landed in Cleveland a month later when the Halos shed salary via a ma sive waiver purge. Giolitos homer i sues heightened at each stop, resulting in an overall 4.88 ERA. Theres still plenty to like about the pitcher. He posts solid strikeout and walk marks. His only injured list stints since 2020 were minimal stays for a hamstring strain and abdominal sorene s. The 2022-23 version of Giolito is a capable innings-eater not di similar fromJameson Taillon andTaijuan Walker, each of whom landed four-year deals in the $70MM range last offseason. Giolito could receive similar proposals. Like those pitchers, he wont be burdened by a qualifying offer, as the midseason change of teams renders him ineligible. At the same time, theres a case for Giolito to prioritize a shorter-term deal. He wont turn 30 until next July. If he recaptures his 2019-21 form, five or six years well above $100MM could be back in play. How he approaches free agency could be based on risk tolerance. Were projecting him to bet on himself, locking in a $44MM guarantee over two seasons while securing an opt-out clause that could get him back to free agency next winter a similar deal to former teammate Carlos Rodons contract with the Giants two years back. Signed with Red Sox for two years, $38.5MM. Includes opt-out after first year. 18. . Two years, $44MM Tim: Dodgers / Anthony: Phillies / Darragh: Twins Stroman joined the Cubs on a three-year, $71MM guarantee over the 2021-22 offseason. The deal allowed him to opt out after the first two seasons. The sinkerballer had a solid first year on the North Side, pitching to a 3.50 ERA behind a 51.7% grounder rate through 25 starts. His second year as a Cub started off brilliantly. Stroman performed at a Cy Young level for the first couple months. Through the end of June, he turned in 102 innings of 2.47 ERA ball. He deservedly secured a second career All-Star nod. Stroman not only was trending towards an easy opt-out decision, he looked on track for a deal approaching nine figures. Along the way, the right-hander publicly with the Cubs. The organization didnt reciprocate, electing to keep their options open as the trade deadline approached. The team played well enough in July to lead the front office to add rather than deal off the MLB roster. Yet Stromans production tailed off as the teams improved. He surrendered 28 runs in 26 2/3 frames, pushing his season ERA up nearly a run and a half. On August 1, the Cubs placed him on the injured list with inflammation in his right hip. That wasnt expected to cost him more than a few weeks. However, Stroman revealed midway through his IL stint that hed subsequently been diagnosed with a rib cartilage fracture. He was shut down from throwing entirely and didnt return to action until September 15. By that point, the Cubs playoff hopes were fading. Stroman stepped directly onto the MLB roster without a minor league rehab stint in an effort to right the ship. He pitched twice out of the bullpen before taking the ball for two abbreviated starts to close out the year. Stroman to sed eight innings of eight-run ball (five earned) with eight strikeouts and two walks over those four contests. His sinker and breaking pitch were each down around 1-2 MPH from their early-season level, although that could be explained by the abbreviated ramp-up period. Though some thought Stroman would opt into the $21MM he had remaining with the Cubs for 2024, the rightys decision isnt especially surprising. Nathan Eovaldis two-year, $34MM deal with the Rangers last winter likely serves as a floor for Stroman, especially since Stroman is ineligible for the qualifying offer Eovaldi had. With Stroman turning 33 in May, teams may stop at a two-year commitment. We wouldnt rule out a three-year pact, perhaps in the vein of Dallas Keuchels $55.5MM deal. Signed with Yankees for two years, $37MM. 19. . Three years, $42MM Tim: Diamondbacks / Anthony: Cardinals / Darragh: Reds When he was a free agent last offseason, Lugo was coming off a five-year run as a productive setup man for the Mets. The right-hander prioritized a chance to compete for a rotation spot once he hit the market. He bet on himself with a two-year, $15MM guarantee from the Padres that allowed him to opt out after the first season. It proved a worthwhile gamble. Lugo was a key contributor for an excellent San Diego rotation, working to a 3.57 ERA over 146 1/3 innings. He struck out a decent 23.2% of opponents against a tidy 6% walk rate. Lugo handled hitters from both sides of the plate and didnt lose much zip off his stuff, averaging 93.2 MPH on his sinker after sitting around 94 MPH while working short relief. It wasnt a completely flawle s season. A left calf strain cost Lugo a month in the first half. He struggled to turn a lineup over a third time, allowing a .266/.301/.531 batting line in those situations. Even if hes better suited for facing opponents twice, hes clearly capable of shouldering a larger workload than he was entrusted from the Mets. Lugo didnt establish himself as a full time big leaguer until age 27. Hes on the older side for a free agent, turning 34 in a couple weeks. While thats likely to cap him at two or three years, he could land an annual salary near the $13MM secured by Tyler Anderson andZach Eflin last winter. As a player who has never earned more than this years $7.5MM, its little surprise the Padres chose not to i sue a qualifying offer to Lugo. And as much as the Padres need starting pitching this winter, theyre also expected to look to reduce payroll, so a $20.325MM offer to Lugo didnt make sense. Signed with Royals for three years, $45MM. Includes opt-out after second year. 20. . Two years, $40MM Tim: Mets / Anthony: Mariners / Darragh: Angels Martinez, 36, remains an excellent source of right-handed offense at the designated hitter spot. Dating back to his 2014 breakout with the Tigers, he has never slipped below a 119 wRC+ outside of the 60-game pandemic season. This year on a one-year deal with the Dodgers, Martinez ranked third among free agents with 33 home runs and a 135 wRC+. Originally drafted by the Astros, Martinez struggled in his initial exposure to big league pitching before overhauling his swing. Failing to understand the potential impact of those changes, Houston released Martinez in March of 2014. The Tigers snagged Martinez on a minor league deal, and he went on to rake to a 145 wRC+ over three-plus years before a trade to the Diamondbacks. Despite a huge contract year and lack of a qualifying offer, Martinez fell well short of MLBTRs contract expectations in the . He still landed a five-year, $110MM deal from the Red Sox, for whom he posted a 154 wRC+ in his first two seasons. Given the chance to opt out of his remaining three years and $62.5MM at that point back when only the AL had the DH Martinez chose to stay put. He then did the same after a disappointing and brief 2020 season. Martinez rebounded with a 123 wRC+ for the Red Sox from 2021-22, though his 22 contract year was inconsistent and included a three-month stretch where he hit only six home runs. Given the universal DH, we still thought a two-year, $30MM deal was in the offing for Martinez after 22. Instead, he took a one-year, $10MM deal with the Dodgers. This with Dodgers hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc, largely credited with revamping Martinezs swing in the first place along with Craig Wallenbrock. As strong as Martinezs 2023 season was, he was limited to 113 games due to back and groin injuries. Unlike last year, he finished strong with eight home runs in the seasons final month plus another dinger in the NLDS. Martinezs production was , with 98th percentile average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. His succe s also came with an increased strikeout rate, up significantly from last year to a 31.1% mark that ranked among the ten worst in baseball. Age and lack of defensive value will likely cap him at two years, but in a market devoid of quality bats, Martinez is one of the best options for teams in need of offense. Though Martinez would normally have been a solid candidate for a qualifying offer, the Dodgers are widely expected to pursue Ohtani this offseason. Ohtani and Martinez are limited to designated hitter in 2024, which may explain the Dodgers choice not to make the offer. Signed with Mets for one year, $12MM. 21. . Four years, $40MM Tim: Orioles / Anthony: Yankees / Darragh: Tigers Few pitchers can match Hicks raw arm strength. The 62 righty has owned a triple-digit fastball dating back to high school. By age 21, hed not only secured a spot on the Cardinals Opening Day roster but had earned enough trust to get high-leverage work. He pitched to a 3.47 ERA through a season and a half before his elbow blew out, nece sitating Tommy John surgery in June 2019. The injury and the pandemic kept him off the field through 2020. Since he suffers from Type 1 diabetes, Hicks was able to opt out of the shortened season while still collecting a full year of service time. The elbow remained problematic in 2021. He dealt with renewed inflammation and was limited to 10 appearances. The Cards neverthele s tried to stretch him out for work as a starter the following season. Hicks struggled over eight games and was moved back to the bullpen for good after losing around six weeks to a flexor injury in his forearm. His results were inconsistent down the stretch. Hicks did his best to put those frustrating few seasons behind him in 2023. He avoided the injured list and combined for 65 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball between the Cardinals and Blue Jays, who ac