Is it po sible to predict the NHL playoff field in November? Not exactly, but that hasn't stopped the practice from becoming a league-widetradition in the last decade aseach season reaches its all-telling U.S. Thanksgiving landmark. Sincethe salary cap came into play in 2005-06,teams in a playoff position on the fourth Thursday in November have gone on to make it 77.8percent of the time, . Over that span, onaverage,fewer than four teams out of playoff contention at this time of year reverse their fortunes in time to make the Stanley Cup playoffs. Last year, it turned out 14 of the 16 playoff teams were in place by Nov. 24. While incomplete, the data is compelling enough to serve as a snapshot to projectstandings come April. So how does it apply to the 2017-18 season? MORE: Thanksgiving arrived early this year, but every team has played in at least 20 games. And it's been a topsy-turvy start with more parity than has been seen in recent seasons. Entering the holiday break, the Eastern Conference's top 12 teams were separated by just eight points. It's even closer out West, with12 teams separated by five points. What's more: Half of last year's playoff teams are currently out of a playoff position. The Atlantic-leading Lightning mi sed the postseason all together in 2016-17, while the Pacific's first-place Golden Knights hadn't yet come into existence. All this is to saythe Thanksgiving rule this season has the potential to see greater-than-average turnover. With that in mind, we used the data from the last 11 seasons to examine which surprise teamsshould be a playoff lock while other underachieving preseason favoritesface statistically unfavorable odds to overcome their slow starts. AWARDS WATCH: Eastern Conference Atlantic Division 1. Tampa Bay Lightning, 34points 2. Toronto Maple Leafs, 29points 3. Detroit Red Wings, 23points 4. Boston Bruins, 22points 5.Ottawa Senators, 22points 6. Montreal Canadiens, 19points 7. Florida Panthers, 18points 8. Buffalo Sabres, 14points Lock 'em in Lightning The dynamic duo of Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov have the Lightning in an enviable position with their white-hot 16-3-2 start to the season. Since 2005-06, only three teams (the Canadiensin 2015-16 andWild in 2010-11 and 2011-12) fell out of playoff favor after entering Thanksgiving with the NHL's top point total. It would take a catastrophic injury to one of Tampa's MVP candidates to initiatesuch a precipitous fall. MORE: Biggest surprise Red Wings Anthony Mantha(10 goals, 19 points) and DylanLarkin (16 a sists, 20 points) are 1-2 in team scoring through 20 games. The leaders of the Red Wings' youth movement have helped mask deficiencies ondefensethat remain from last season. The 10-9-3 start has been nice, but when the scoring wanes and Jimmy Howard's .923 save percentage inevitably slips, we'll see thereasons why many picked Detroit to finish last in the Eastern Conference this season. Time Rod Carew Jersey to worry Canadiens Hoo boy, this team is a me s. Montreal limped into Thanksgiving ona five-game losing streak,which isn't even itslongest of the young season. Its most important player hasn't dre sed since Nov. 2 and the blueline has been anemic with Shea Weber, let alone without. The Habshope this nightmare start will sort itself out when Carey Price gets healthy, but he can't score goals and patience isn't exactly a virtue in Montreal. . MORE: Metropolitan Division The Metro is tricky. Eightpoints separate its first- and last-place teams. If there's a division that'll see significantdisruption in order between now and April, this is it. 1. Columbus Blue Jackets, 29points 2. New Jersey Devils, 28points 3. New York Islanders, 26points 4.Pittsburgh Penguins, 25points 5. Washington Capitals, 25points 6. New York Rangers, 24points 7.Carolina Hurricanes, 22points 8. Philadelphia Flyers, 21points Lock 'em in Penguins The repeat Stanley Cup champions have looked like a shell of their usually awesome selves at times through an 11-9-3 start.There is some cause for concern (their 3.43 goals-against averageis on par with bottom-dwellers Arizona, Buffalo, Montreal and Florida), but Pittsburgh is scoring just 2.65 goals per contest despite ranking second in shots.It's only a matter of time until the equilibrium is restored and the Pens round into form. SN EXCLUSIVE: Biggest surprise Devils Thanks to an accelerated rebuild, theDevils are the best candidate to serve as the2017-18 version of the Maple Leafs. They held first place in the NHL's toughest division for the better part of November and have built up a nice points cushion along the way, thanks to breakout rookiesNico Hischier, Will Butcher and Jesper Bratt. If injuries don't derail the momentum, watch for New Jersey to make some noise all season. Time to worry Hurricanes Carolina was a popular pick to unseat a playoff holdoverand end their own eight-yeardrought. Instead, goals have been difficult to come by, their special teams units are struggling and new No. 1 netminderScott Darling hasn't adjusted well to the full-time workload. The Canes could use another top-six forward before getting serious about the postseason. WATCH: Western Conference Central Division 1. St. Louis Blues, 33points 2. Winnipeg Jets, 29points 3. Nashville Predators, 28points 4.Colorado Avalanche, 23points 5. Chicago Blackhawks, 23points 6. Minnesota Wild, 23points 7.Dallas Stars, 23points Lock 'em in Blues What a renai sance it's been for the bruised-but-not-beaten Blues, who have the look of a serious Stanley Cup contender despite the preseason injuries that were supposed to derail their chances. Atop-line trio of Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn and Jaden Schwartz might be the best in hockey right now. Alex Pietrangelois playing like a Norris Trophy finalist, if not favorite. And the returns of Patrik Berglund, JayBouwmeesterand, eventually, Zach Sanford will only work to further fortify their ranks. MORE: Biggest surprise Avalanche Now that the Matt Duchene-sized gorilla is out of the locker room, the Avalanche have wasted no time moving on. Led byNathan MacKinnon(17 points in November) andGabriel Landeskog(six goals in nine games), Colorado has gone 3-2-1 since trading Duchene, including wins over Washington and Dallas. This doesn't mean the Avs area playoff team, but 2016-17 is a distant memory. Time to worry Stars When general manager Jim Nill went on his offseason spending spree, last place in the Central wasn't what he had in mind. Dallas is operating in the red in goal differential (minus-4) through its disappointing 11-10-1 start. That's an odd place to be for a Ken Hitchcock-coached team, especially one with so much high-end talent. It's on Ben Bishop's shoulders, too (.908 save percentage). MORE: Pacific Division 1. Vegas Golden Knights, 27points 2.Los Angeles Kings, 26points 3. Calgary Flames, 25points 4. Vancouver Canucks, 25points 5. San Jose Sharks, 23points 6.Anaheim Ducks, 23points 7. Edmonton Oilers, 18points 8. Arizona Coyotes, 13points Lock 'em in Flames A whole lot has gone right for the Flames in their 12-8-1 start. Johnny Gaudreauis third in the NHL in points, the lockdown defense duo of Dougie Hamilton and Mark Giordano is one of the league's most dominant, and a resurgent 35-year-old Mike Smith appears to be theanswer in net. Calgary has its imperfections, but in a wide-open Pacific Division where every teamhas shown major flaws, odds are good the Flames makea playoff return. MORE: Johnny Gaudreau earns full marks for MVP-like start Biggest surprise Golden Knights The darlings of the NHL continue to defy expansion teamodds and expectations. On Wednesday, they improved to 13-6-1 the bestrecord in history during a franchise's first 20 games. We've been waiting for the regre sion, but a sterling 8-1-0 markat T-Mobile Arena putthe Golden Knights in first place at Thanksgiving. All but three such division leaders have gone on to make the playoffs since 2005-06. Maybe it's time to believe? Time to worry Oilers Even Connor McDavidhasn't been enough to save the Oilers from themselves this season. The 21-year-old captain has 11 more points (28) than his next-closest teammates, but he can't do it all. Maybe a statement 6-2 victory in Detroit Wednesday was enough to wake up this season's most disappointing team. More likely, we're seeing the Oilers for what they really are: A flawed group without anyquick-fix options. Bailey Ober Jersey