For the second consecutive year, stands as one of the top impending free agent hitters. Unle s he suffers a significant injury in the next few weeks, he is all but a sured to opt-out of the final two years and $36MM on his deal with the Giants. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported a couple weeks ago that San Francisco was hopeful of retaining the star third baseman on a new multi-year deal. Agent Scott Boras confirmed as much to , telling her that the sides have had some discu sions. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi framed things similarly, telling Slu ser the parties have had conversations and active dialogue on a long-term arrangement. Thats rather vague terminology that certainly doesnt suggest anything is imminent. Its neverthele s confirmation theres some amount of mutual interest in keeping Chapman in San Francisco. Hes a California native who has a longstanding relationship with skipper Bob Melvin dating back to their time in Oakland. Chapman hasnt had any problem acclimating to Oracle Park. He takes a .245/.335/.442 batting line and his customarily strong defensive grades into tonights game in Seattle. Hes at 20+ homers for the fifth time in his career with a strong 11% walk percentage. Chapmans 24.3% strikeout rate is a bit higher than the league mark but would be his lowest rate since 2019. Its very good all-around production despite a slow start. Chapman limped to a .266 on-base percentage through the end of April. He has been one of the most productive infielders in the majors since then, posting a .253/.355/.461 line with 16 homers dating back to May 1. Its the inverse pattern to Chapmans 2023 campaign. He was arguably the best player in the majors through the seasons first month last year. His offensive numbers plummeted after that and he hit the market with something of a down-arrow trajectory. Chapman had an easy call to decline a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, but he and his camp at the Boras Corporation did not find the money they were seeking. It wasnt until the beginning of March that he inked a $54MM guarantee with multiple opt-outs. Between a signing bonus, his salary, and a buyout (a suming he opts out), Chapman is making $20MM this year. Thats about what hed have Marc Gasol Jersey made if hed taken the QO from Toronto although the extra two years present more long-term security than the qualifying offer would have provided. Chapman will presumably try again to land a deal that pushes into nine figures. Hell play almost all of next season at age 32. Its difficult but not impo sible to pull a $100MM+ deal at that age. As shown on MLBTRs , there have been four nine-figure deals within the last decadefor hitters who were 32 or older. six-year, $162MM pact led the way among free agent contracts. , and signed extensions ranging between $125MM and $170MM in new money on five-year terms. Those players were all better hitters than Chapman has been. As a plus defender at third base, he provides more value on that side of the ball than all of them, aside from maybe Machado. Teams could be wary about paying for defense into a players mid-30s. A five-year term for Chapman would run through his age-36 season. Thats the point through which and were paid on seven-year contracts (both of which have been disasters for the team). Chapman certainly isnt going to approach Rendons $35MM annual salary. Bryants $26MM AAV is a more realistic target, albeit on a whatd likely be a four- or five-year term instead of seven. and each signed through age-37 as free agent third basemen. Both guarantees checked in just south of $100MM. Those contracts are a few years old and were both signed after the player declined a qualifying offer, thereby attaching draft compensation. The Giants cannot make Chapman a QO the CBA prevents a player from receiving more than one in his career so hed hit the market entirely unencumbered. Barring some kind of hometown discount, Chapman presumably wouldnt be interested in forgoing a free agent trip for le s than the Donaldson and LeMahieu guarantees. leads the impending free agent cla s at third base. Chapman is the clear #2 option and the cla s drops off dramatically from there. Last winters group was even shallower. A suming one considers primarily an outfielder rather than a first baseman, Chapmans $54MM guarantee led all infielders. As Slu ser observes, a Chapman extension may need to be San Franciscos biggest investment under this front office. The Giants have only signed one nine-figure deal since they hired Farhan Zaidi as president of baseball operations during the 2018-19 offseason: last winters six-year, $113MM pact for 25-year-old center fielder . Theyve taken plenty of bigger swings and were a failed physical away from signing for $350MM, but theyve yet to actually land a domestic free agent on a long-term deal. Theyve been much more amenable to shorter-term pickups with opt-outs for players whose markets didnt develop as theyd hoped (e.g. , , , Chapman). The Giants have around $132MM in guaranteed money for next season. Expected opt-outs for Snell and Chapman would knock that down to roughly $85MM. Lee, , (a suming he doesnt opt out this year) and are the only players signed beyond next year. That doesnt include arbitration projections for , , , and . Estrada and Yastrzemski are potential trade or non-tender candidates. The Giants should have a good amount of payroll flexibility even if they retain everyone from their arbitration group. Rajon Rondo Jersey